Maharashtra Election Results Live Update: Mahayuti Slightly Ahead of MVA, Predicts C-Voter Survey

Maharashtra Election Results 2024:The political battle in Maharashtra is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with a C-Voter survey predicting a tight race between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the recently concluded Maharashtra Assembly elections. As per the survey, the Mahayuti is projected to secure 112 out of 288 Assembly seats, while the MVA is expected to win 104 seats, leaving 61 seats in a state of uncertainty. The halfway mark for forming a majority in the Maharashtra Assembly is 145 seats, meaning that both alliances are within striking distance of each other.

With the results set to be announced on November 23, the political landscape in Maharashtra is poised for intense scrutiny. While the Mahayuti holds a slight lead, exit polls have often been inaccurate in the past, and as such, the projections should be taken with caution. Here’s a breakdown of how the two alliances are expected to perform across different regions and what it could mean for Maharashtra’s future.

Maharashtra Election Dynamics: Mahayuti vs. MVA

The battle for Maharashtra’s 288 Assembly seats is essentially a two-way contest between the Mahayuti, an alliance of the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which is made up of Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction.

According to the C-Voter survey, the Mahayuti is slightly ahead with a projected 41% vote share, while MVA is expected to secure 40% of the vote. This marginal difference suggests a high level of competition between the two alliances, with both sides looking to secure the upper hand as they vie for the control of the state.

While the statewide race is close, the survey highlights some regional variations in voting patterns, particularly in Mumbai, Konkan, Marathwada, and Vidarbha, which could ultimately determine the outcome.

Regional Breakdown: Mahayuti’s Lead in Some Key Areas

In Mumbai, the Mahayuti is predicted to have the edge, with the alliance expected to win 17 out of 36 seats. In comparison, the MVA may secure 10 seats, with 8 seats still considered too close to call. Mumbai is a crucial battleground for both sides, and the Mahayuti’s stronger showing in this region could give it the necessary push towards victory.

Meanwhile, in the Konkan region, the Mahayuti is projected to fare well, securing 20 seats out of the region’s total of 24 seats. This strong performance comes despite the MVA’s efforts, which is expected to win 8 seats, with 9 remaining too close to call.

In Marathwada, the Mahayuti is expected to edge ahead, winning 20 out of 47 seats, compared to MVA’s 14 seats. The remaining 13 seats in this region are still in contention. The Mahayuti’s dominance in these key regions suggests it could secure a solid foundation of support before counting extends to other areas.

MVA’s Strongholds: Vidarbha and West Maharashtra

On the other hand, the Maha Vikas Aghadi is projected to perform better in Vidarbha and West Maharashtra, regions that could counterbalance the Mahayuti’s performance in other areas. In Vidarbha, the MVA is likely to win 23 seats out of the region’s 48, while the Mahayuti may secure 18 seats. Similarly, in West Maharashtra, the MVA is predicted to secure 34 seats out of 45, giving it a distinct advantage in these regions. The Mahayuti is projected to win 25 seats in this region.

With 16 seats in Vidarbha and 7 seats in West Maharashtra considered too close to call, the election results could shift in either alliance’s favor depending on how these contests unfold.

Voter Demographics: Gender and Regional Preferences

The survey also sheds light on the gender-based voting patterns. According to the C-Voter data, 41.9% of women voters backed the Mahayuti, compared to 36.4% for MVA. This suggests that the ruling alliance has garnered a more significant share of support from female voters, which could prove to be a critical factor in the overall outcome. Meanwhile, 40.3% of male voters supported the Mahayuti, while 43.3% voted for MVA, reflecting a tighter competition among male voters.

The regional vote share data shows the Mahayuti leading in regions such as Mumbai (49%), Konkan (45%), and Marathwada (36.7%), while MVA has stronger showings in Vidarbha (40.2%) and West Maharashtra (44%). The contest is poised to remain competitive as the counting of votes approaches.

Exit Poll Predictions: Mixed Results Across Surveys

While the C-Voter survey predicts a slight edge for the Mahayuti, other exit polls suggest a broader range of possible outcomes. Three major exit polls predict that the Mahayuti will secure a comfortable majority, with projections ranging from 150 to 170 seats. Matrize forecasts that the Mahayuti will win 150-170 seats, while Times Now-JVC predicts the alliance will win 159 seats. The Chanakya exit poll also supports a Mahayuti victory, giving the alliance between 152 and 160 seats, while projecting the MVA will secure 130-138 seats.

However, PMarq provides a different outlook, suggesting a close contest between the two alliances, predicting the Mahayuti will secure 137-157 seats, while MVA could win 126-146 seats.

Legacy Battles and Internal Tensions

The election has been characterized by multiple internal conflicts and high-profile battles within the major political factions. The legacy battle between the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has been a major issue, particularly due to the ideological divide over the legacy of Bal Thackeray. This contest has added a layer of intrigue to the election, as both factions continue to clash for supremacy.

Additionally, there have been tensions within the NCP after Ajit Pawar rebelled against his uncle Sharad Pawar in 2023, leading to a split in the party. This internal rift has further complicated the political dynamics in Maharashtra, as the two factions now find themselves in opposition.

Conclusion: What to Expect on November 23

As the vote counting on November 23 approaches, the political future of Maharashtra remains uncertain. While the Mahayuti holds a slight edge in terms of seat projections, the tight contest, internal battles within parties, and the unpredictable nature of exit polls make it difficult to predict the exact outcome. All eyes are now on the results, with political analysts and citizens alike eagerly awaiting the final verdict.